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China"s semiconductor market is an outgrowth, and global semiconductor components demand weak demand

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According to data released by SIA, global semiconductor sales in 2015 were $335.2 billion, down 0.2% from a year earlier. The decline in the global semiconductor market is due to lower PC sales and slower smartphone shipments. And before the corresponding is the boom of China"s semiconductor market remains high, the semiconductor market is worth $164.9 billion, up 6.1% from a year earlier, to become the world"s one of the few can still keep growing regional markets.

China"s semiconductor industry has a big opportunity: China"s semiconductor market reached $164.9 billion in 2015, though its supply rate is only about 13.5%. Promulgated by the state council to improve the imbalance between supply and demand, promote the national integrated circuit industry development outline, raise more than 130 billion yuan of funds, improve China semiconductor industry in the expansion of advanced processing capacity and international mergers and acquisitions to the problem of shortage of funds. Currently, it has invested in the semiconductor industry chain, including ziguang group, smic international, long power technology, China microsemiconductor and ai parker.

Get leap-forward design breakthroughs: from the point of sales, chip design business continued rapid growth in China, GDP growth year by year from 2004 yuan in 2004 to 2015, 2015 yuan, 2004 ~ 2015 annual compound growth rate of 29%, market share and rapidly rising from 7.1% in 2009 to 18.5% in 2015. Among them, haith (no. 6) and zhan (10th) ranked the top 10 sales of IC design enterprises in 2015. But at this stage in the IP nuclear market, China still relies heavily on external supply, and more than 85 percent is provided by foreign suppliers.

The manufacturing sector needs to invest more: (1) in 2015, China"s wafer manufacturing sales reached 900.8 billion yuan, up 26.5%. At present, the world"s top four factories, including undof, lijing, grofside and smic, are planning to expand capacity on the mainland. (2) as the key technological node of this stage, China core international has achieved mass production and is expected to close the technological gap with the international giants. (3) compared with the integrated circuit industry chain in the design industry constantly good policy, wafer manufacturing due to their high capital expenditure, long return period is ignored, the market share declining, will pursue good wafer manufacturing, narrowing the technology gap to be large funds and social capital investment and effective integration of industrial chain.

China"s survey industry is internationally competitive: (1) in the three major industries of China integrated circuit design, chip manufacturing and packaging testing, the packaging and testing industry has remained relatively large, accounting for 38.34 percent. Driven by the rapid development of government policies and local markets, the market share of the closed survey has increased rapidly from 8% in 2013 to 15% in 2015. Among them, changdian technology (600584), through the acquisition of Singapore star kepeng company, is one of the world"s top three semiconductor test industries. (2) advanced packaging such as wafer level packaging, FlipChip and 2.5d / 3D are expected to become mainstream in the future, and the main research enterprises, including long power technology (600584), have taken the lead in the layout.

Industry rating and investment strategy: we are strongly optimistic about the development opportunities of China"s semiconductor industry under the background of chip localization. Based mainly on the following two logic: 1) national level attaches great importance to the subsistence in semiconductor market is insufficient, the supply and demand imbalances, successively promulgated multiple policy files, is intended to become bigger and stronger China"s integrated circuit industry. At the same time, the establishment of large fund and the investment of the capital of the society have effectively activated the financial chain of the semiconductor industry. 2) domestic semiconductor market sentiment degree is high, the boom of China semiconductor market remains high, the semiconductor market is worth $164.9 billion, up 6.1% from a year earlier, to become the world"s one of the few can still keep growing regional markets. The global semiconductor industry has been the trend of the transition from South Korea to the mainland. Based on these two points, we give the industry "recommendation" ratings. We believe that the semiconductor industry has big investment, long return cycle, etc, in the design, manufacture and testing has technical advantages and scale advantages in the field of enterprise, at the same time should be focused on m&a expectations and policy support of the company.

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